Are the Greens Sinking?

In the latest UK opinion poll, by YouGov for the Sunday Times, the Greens are put at just two per cent, confirming their slump in recent months. If they polled anything like that in next year’s Euro-elections they would lose both their MEPs — and all the associated funding. Their main asset remains Caroline Lucas, MP for Brighton Pavilion, but since she stood down as leader last year, in a worthy but perhaps foolish attempt to spread the exposure of Green politicians, few voters are able to say who’s the Green Leader (before you rush for your google search, it’s Natalie Bennett, pictured). It will be interesting to see how the Greens fare in the County Council elections in 10 days time, but I doubt whether it will be particularly good news for them. In 2010, when borough elections in London coincided with a general election, they fell back badly, especially in Lewisham, which was one of their strongest areas. So how can all this be explained? Partly it can be put down to the degree to which other parties have successfully sold themselves as being environment-friendly. That is particularly true of the Liberal Democrats, with the LibDem push within the Coalition for green energy, green jobs and a green investment bank; Ed Davey, as Secretary of State, ably took over the baton from Chris Huhne, who had done some excellent work in the field. And some protest voters who migrated to the Greens from the LibDems or Tories may, believe it or not, now have moved on to UKIP. But undoubtedly there is another, perhaps stronger, reason: namely that when the economic and financial situation is bad and many people are worried about their jobs and making ends meet, green issues tend to slip down the priorities of all but the most committed. At the Euro-elections in just over one year’s time the Greens will be praying that is not the case. And if they do lose their two seats it will be hard for them to promote themselves as a truly national party of significance in the run-up top the 2015 general election.