This Saturday Afghans will go to the polls to elect a new President to replace Hamid Karzai. As NATO troops are also being wound down it’s an opportune moment to examine whether Western intervention in Afghanistan has achieved its intentions. As was made clear at an excellent seminar put on by the Global Strategy Forum in the National Liberal Club this lunchtime, the answer to that question very much depends on how one’s defines those intentions. In the narrowest sense, yes, Al Qaeda lost its operational base and the Taliban government was ousted, though the Taliban are still a force to reckoned with on the ground. Rory Stewart MP — who worked in both Afghanistan and Iraq — argued that a certain degree of stability has been achieved in some areas, despite recent setbacks, and highlighted developmental achievements such as the Turquoise Mountain Foundation which helps artisans market their produce abroad. Caroline Wyatt of the BBC talked of advances that have been made by Afghan women — though most would still think it impossible to carry on working after marriage. The Afghan Ambassador pointed out that these days 21 million Afghans have access to a mobile phone and many young people in Kabul have got into social media. Certainly the relationship between Mr Karzai and NATO forces — particularly the Americans — has been difficult over the last few years and there is no guarantee that the new president will be able to maintain even the uneasy calm that currently exists. The panel thought it unlikely that the Taliban will simply take over again — and were certain that they would not try to impose the same sort of extreme religion-based policies if they did. I have only been to Afghanistan once, in 1969, travelling overland on my way back from the Vietnam War, but I loved the country, with its wild terrain and colourful people. They have suffered a lot since then and certainly deserve a quieter future, and one that is determined by Afghans, not by outsiders.
Links: http://www.turqouisemountain.org and http://www.globalstrategyforum.org
Jonathan Fryer 