Jonathan Fryer

Writer, Lecturer, Broadcaster and Liberal Democrat Politician

Posts Tagged ‘general election’

Mrs May’s Reckless Complacency

Posted by jonathanfryer on Wednesday, 31st May, 2017

Theresa May alarmTheresa May called a snap general election, despite earlier saying she wouldn’t, supposedly because she wants a strong mandate to negotiate Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, though one can’t help wonder whether the true reason was because she thought she could wipe the floor with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and return with a huge majority in a parliamentary landslide. If the latter were the case then her calculation may prove to be wrong. Although just a few weeks ago the Conservatives were ahead by 20 per cent all recent opinion polls agree that that gap has narrowed considerably. Indeed, according to a new YouGov prediction, the Conservatives may not even have an overall majority on 9 June. Whether that turns out to be the case or not, what is clear is that the Prime Minister, far from being “strong and stable” — the slogan she keeps repeating, like some demented parrot — is distinctly wobbly. It’s not just that there have been a couple of major U-turns on the Tory manifesto, just days after it was published. Mrs May still shows no sign of knowing what her Brexit plan is and how she will get the best deal for Britain. She has succeeded in offending our continental EU partners and Ireland, compounding matters by snuggling up close to America’s Donald Trump, whom most Europeans view as beyond the pale. Moreover, the Prime Minister has arrogantly refused to take part in a multi-party leaders’ debate, thereby opening herself up to some pretty hostile questioning from interviewers. When she goes on visits around the country, she only appears before heavily vetted audiences, mostly made up of Conservative Party activists. The message not to engage with the electorate has obviously gone down to Tory parliamentary candidates as well. The Romford Recorder newspaper in East London/West Essex organised three Facebook hustings for the constituencies of Dagenham & Rainham, Hornchurch & Upminster and Romford, and no Conservative was present at any of them. It’s as if the Tories believe that their largely under-the-radar telephone and Internet advertising campaigns — buttressed by a largely sycophantic and Eurosceptic Press — will be enough to secure them victory. Such complacency is bad for democracy and may prove to be their undoing. Sadly, the Prime Minister’s complacency and arrogance could prove to be Britain’s undoing in the Brexit negotiations as well.

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Democracy Must Endure

Posted by jonathanfryer on Thursday, 25th May, 2017

Election 2017Following the bombing atrocity in Manchester campaigning in Britain’s general election was suspended out of respect for the victims and their families, which was right and proper. Moreover the people of Britain needed a couple of days of quiet reflection for the news to sink in. Not that social media were as reticent or reflective; among loving messages of solidarity there was also much anger and some outright hatred, with people hiding behind anonymity to call for reprisals against Muslims, as if somehow a whole community were responsible for the evil doings of a young extremist indoctrinated by the propaganda of ISIS/Daesh. But the election is now only a fortnight away and it is important to demonstrate to the world, as well as to potential terrorists, that not just Manchester but Britain as a whole is unbowed and our democracy will survive and thrive despite this bloody setback. Local campaigning starts again today (and therefore I will be appearing, as planned, as the studio guest at the East London and West Essex radio station 107.5FM’s phone-in between noon and 1pm), while full-scale national campaigning will resume tomorrow. Inevitably the mood will be more subdued than one would normally expect during the fine weather of early summer. But I hope that the turnout on 8 June will be massive. Whoever people vote for, the very act of voting is an act of defiance to those who hate our British values and lifestyle. Democracy must endure.

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So What Will Happen after Brexit?

Posted by jonathanfryer on Tuesday, 16th May, 2017

Theresa May 9Theresa May’s UKIPTory government is ploughing on with Brexit, giving every impression that she expects to walk away after two years of talks with our current 27 EU partners without a deal. The one realistic part of her scenario is that Britain won’t get a worthwhile deal if the Prime Minister and her unsavoury trio of Brexit Ministers insist that they want to have their cake and eat it, i.e. leave the European single market and end freedom of movement and yet somehow still enjoy all the benefits of EU membership. Impossible, as any rational human being must realise. You are either a member of a Club or not, paying your subs and obeying the rules, or the best you can hope for otherwise is some sort of reciprocal arrangement that won’t be anything like as good as the real thing. During the EU referendum, the Brexiteers attacked the Remainers for what they called “Project Fear”, in other words the projections that experts (much derided by those on the Leave side who prefer emotions to facts) that the British economy would take a massive hit if we do have a hard Brexit. We are still in the EU at the moment and are therefore still benefiting from our open trading relationship within the biggest trading bloc in the world. Yet already the shocks are being felt just because the government is pressing ahead with Brexit, shamefully cheered on by the supposed Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, who has declared that “Brexit is settled”. No it isn’t! And because there are still more than 18 months left before Britain goes over the cliff edge there is still time to soften the blows or, if the British electorate wants it, even to stop Brexit in its tracks.

UK inflationIn the meantime, inflation has shot up from 0.3% to 2.7%, almost entirely because of the fall in the value of the pound sterling and the associated increase in import costs. That is hitting people on low incomes, even those in employment whose modest wages are not now keeping up with inflation. Moreover, leading financial services firms and other companies have started expanding their premises in cities such as Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt as they prepare to move thousands of their employees out of London once their ability to operate freely in the EU from London is curtailed. And it’s not just people on generous City salaries who will leave or lose their positions. Jobs will soon go in various sectors of manufacturing industry as well as the hospitality industry and services. I accept that a slim majority of those who voted in last June’s EU Referendum indicated that they would prefer Britain to leave the EU. But did all of them really realise what the sort of hard Brexit Mrs May and her colleagues are pursuing would mean? I don’t believe so. And I can’t help feeling that the reason the Prime Minister called this snap election is not so much because she think Labour is on the ropes, but rather because she wants to get the election out of the way before the Brexit shit really hits the fan.

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Yes, Animals Have a Place in Elections

Posted by jonathanfryer on Friday, 12th May, 2017

cowsTheresa May’s snap general election is already being described by the political pundits as unlike any other. That’s partly because she has called it for one (official) reason: to get a mandate to be tough in Britain’s Brexit negotiations with our 27 EU partners. Unofficially, it’s clear the Conservatives believe that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is in such disarray that they are can be easily vanquished at the polls. But even if some aspects of this election campaign are unusual in other ways it is very familiar. Already, for example, candidates are being bombarded with emails (in the old days, they used to be letters) from constituents lobbying them on issues from A to Z. It’s all part of the democratic process and I always make the effort to respond to them all. That was quite a task when I stood for the European Parliament and the whole of London was my electorate. Anyway, one of the first organised lobbying groups off the mark in Dagenham & Rainham in this election are people concerned with the treatment of animals, whether relating to farming techniques, so-called blood sports, vivisection or cruelty to domestic animals. Some commentators may feel that elections should be 100% about people, but I share the view that it is right that animal welfare is on the agenda. If we can’t treat other creatures properly then it is a poor reflection on our humanity. The major concern of the voters who have been in touch is that animal welfare in this country is covered by over 40 EU laws and they fear that once Britain leaves the European Union some of those laws may be watered down or abolished. They’re right to raise that anxiety, and the next Parliament should ensure such weakening of animal protection does not happen. In the meantime, however, Mrs May’s Conservative government has floated the idea — not for the first time — of lifting the ban on fox hunting. That pitch may be popular among traditionalists in the Tory shires, but it would go down in the cities like the proverbial lead balloon.

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Ciao, UKIP?

Posted by jonathanfryer on Friday, 5th May, 2017

paul-nuttallThough the UK media are mainly focusing on Conservative gains in yesterday’s county council elections, in many ways the more remarkable story is the complete collapse of UKIP. The party lost every seat it was defending and one can’t help but wonder how long the sole UKIP candidate who gained a seat, in Burnley, in Lancashire, will last. Of course, there are still some UKIP local councillors left, but presumably not for long. UKIP’s leader Paul Nuttall was trying to put a brave face on it today, claiming that he did not really mind if UKIP voters had defected en masse to the Tories, as Theresa May is implementing the sort of Brexit that UKIP wants (though maybe not quite quickly enough). It’s true that in the process Mrs May is sounding ever more like a UKIP Prime Minister, lambasting not just Brussels but Johnny Foreigner. It will be interesting to see if her tone changes after next month’s general election, though it almost certainly will not before then, as she wants to ensure those former UKIP voters turn out for the Conservatives on 8 June. Paul Nuttall, meanwhile, is standing in the uber-Leave constituency of Boston and Skegness, but as all of Lincolnshire’s UKIP country councillors were swept out yesterday the likelihood of his winning that parliamentary seat is little better than zero. Nor is any other seat likely to go UKIP’s way. Instead, there is an interesting polarisation over Brexit between Strong and Stable Mable in the blue corner and chippy Tim Farron in the yellow. Where Labour is depends on which Labour candidate you speak to, though Jeremy Corbyn’s offer of a People’s Brexit sounds suspiciously like Mable’s red-white-and-blue Brexit. Of course, the general election is not going to be all about Brexit, nor should it be, but the Conservatives are portraying the Brexit challenge as Mrs May’s Falklands moment, in the hope that she will be able to mirror Mrs Thatcher’s jingoistic triumph at the polls in 1982-1983, with most of the mainstream Press cheering her on.

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LibDems Surge Past 100,000

Posted by jonathanfryer on Monday, 24th April, 2017

LibDems EU Simon HughesTwo years ago, following a disastrous general election, many pundits were writing the Liberal Democrats off as a serious political force. But how things have changed! The party has now pushed UKIP down into fourth place in the opinion polls and has notched up an impressive series of local council by-election wins over the past year, not to mention Sarah Olney’s great triumph in Richmond Park & North Kingston. Moreover, despite the crushing disappointment (for Remainers) of last June’s EU Referendum, the LibDems have emerged stronger as the one sizable national party that has a clear line on Brexit: we believe Britain is better off inside the European Union, but if the Conservative government, with the active support of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, is intent on pressing ahead with a hard Brexit, removing Britain from the European single market and common customs area, then we will do everything to try to mitigate the damage. It would have been nice to have Labour singing from the same hymn-sheet, as former Prime Minister Tony Blair and some forthright MPs such as David Lammy have done, but nothing can hide the fact that Labour is deeply divided on the issue and is still trying to out-UKIP UKIP and the Tories in much of northern England. Sad. But the good news from the LibDems’ point of view is that a surge of people have joined the party since the Referendum, accelerating since Theresa May broke her promise and called a snap general election, in an egregious example of political opportunism.

LibDems 100,000So, today, Tim Farron was able to announce that party membership has topped 100,000 and it is still rising. That was a heartening message to deliver at his London general election launch, held in Vauxhall, where arch-Brexiteer Kate Hoey is re-standing as an MP (despite the fact that Lambeth had a phenomenally high Remain vote last June) and indeed has been endorsed by UKIP’s Paul Nuttall. So Vauxhall, previously way down the LibDem target hit-list, has now suddenly become very interesting for prospective parliamentary candidate, George Turner. It will be vital for London LibDems that we hold Richmond Park, as well as Tom Brake’s seat, Carshalton & Wallington, but there should be a good chance of recapturing places such as Old Southwark and Bermondsey (Simon Hughes), Twickenham (Vince Cable) and Kingston & Surbiton (Ed Davey), to name but three. I’ll be flying the flag in Dagenham and Rainham, but also doing as much as I can to boost our chances in target areas.

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Let’s Call Theresa’s Bluff!

Posted by jonathanfryer on Tuesday, 18th April, 2017

IMG_2267UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, has called a snap general election for 8 June. Doubtless she hopes to capitalise on Labour’s continuing melt-down and were she to win handsomely, she would claim that is a ringing endorsement for her red, white and blue Brexit policy. And that is exactly why she must not win handsomely. She and the Three Brexiteers — Davis, Fox and Johnson — have handled the whole Brexit process disastrously so far, being in serious danger of throwing the baby out with the bath water. That is why we need to deliver a giant raspberry to her and her team, by voting for anti-Brexit parties; in England, especially, that means the Liberal Democrats, who have been performing astonishingly well in local by-elections since last June’s EU Referendum. Ok, I am biased, as a long-standing member of the Party and serial Euro-candidate, but I do believe that this is the most important general election since 1945, in which people can take a stand against narrow nationalism and oppose the Tories’ destructive policies, not only on Brexit but on the NHS and public services generally, as well as the environment and so much more. I shall be flying the LibDem flag in Dagenham & Rainham, as well as helping the national campaign. This is our chance to say loud and clear, “No, Theresa, we are NOT united behind you, and today’s Consevative government does NOT represent the best of Britain!”

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Crafting a Liberal Democrat General Election Narrative

Posted by jonathanfryer on Monday, 5th January, 2015

imageThe starting gun has fired for May’s general election in the UK, and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has stressed that the LibDems can be a useful moderating force in a future Coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour. That’s all well and good, but “Let’s have another Coalition!” isn’t a message that is going to warm the hearts of most voters on the doorsteps, even though virtually all recent opinion polls suggest that that is what the electorate will deliver. I know we will have our manifesto, but most voters don’t read party manifestos, and instead vote for a brilliant local MP (which will boost the chance of survival of many of our incumbents) or because they feel in tune with a party’s values. Currently, somewhere in the region of 8-10 per cent feel in tune with the LibDems, which is why we must get away from just slagging off Labour and the Conservatives, must stress which very positive LibDem policies have been implemented since 2010, and above all craft a narrative which reaffirms the LibDems as a party of principle, pro-people and pro the environment — above all, not letting the Greens steal a march on us on that.

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Are the Tories Falling Apart?

Posted by jonathanfryer on Sunday, 7th March, 2010

The British general election campaign hasn’t even started yet, but already the wheels seem to be coming off the Conservative campaign. They’d hoped to swing voters in marginal seats by pouring in lots of money, much of it donated by Lord Ashcroft. But the protracted revelations about the peer’s nom-dom tax status and his relations with Shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague have now made him more of a liability than an asset. The party has also got unwisely close to the Young Britons’ Foundation, whose head espouses US neo-con views about the ‘disaster’ of the NHS and people’s right to carry a gun. Meanwhile, Lord Tebbit has said that Tory activists should be free to vote and even campaign for UKIP’s Nigel Farage, who is standing against the Speaker, John Bercow. And one of David Cameron’s neighbouring MPs has made the claim (now furiously denied) that Samantha Cameron may have voted for Tony Blair. Any one of these things might not be too damaging, but as the gaffes and indiscretions come thick and fast, the party is being made to look undisciplined and foolish. And we still don’t know what David Cameron stands for, other than vague ‘change’.

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