Jonathan Fryer

Writer, Lecturer, Broadcaster and Liberal Democrat Politician

Posts Tagged ‘Front National’

France: Fingers Crossed for Macron

Posted by jonathanfryer on Sunday, 23rd April, 2017

emmanuel-macronVoters in France go to the polls today in the first round of presidential elections. If the opinion polls are right, none of the 11 candidates is likely to garner as much as a quarter of the votes, but what is crucial under the French voting system is which two come first and second — even if there are only a few votes between second and third — as there will be a run-off between the two front runners in a second round of voting in two weeks’ time. Pundits on both sides of the Channel are agreed that what one might call “traditional” party’s candidates are unlikely to make the grade. More probable is that the centrist former investment banker and civil servant, Emmanuel Macron, who has never held elected office, will go head-to-head with Marine Le Pen of the far-right Front National dynasty. One has to note that the leftist Socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been surging in the polls recently and it’s not impossible that the conservative Francois Fillon, recently accused of nepotism, might rally. So all is still to play for as voters make up their minds. Indeed, in the turbulent Western politics post-Brexit and Trump it maybe rash to even try to predict the outcome. What may be crucial is the turn-out; voting in France is not compulsory and some disillusioned voters may decide to stay at home. Even if Le Pen’s supporters may be more highly motivated (especially after the recent shooting of a policeman by a Frenchman of North African origin), which could mean she might just sneak into first place, most commentators believe she would be trashed in the second round. That is what happened to her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, when Jacques Chirac wiped the floor with him in the second round in 2002 (though I suspect Marine could poll better than her father’s final tally of just under 18%). The question therefore is: who is best placed to beat Marine, even if in principle any of the leading contenders should be able to? I believe the answer to that is Emmanuel Macron, not just because he is new, looks good and is clearly intelligent, but for two other reasons related to policy. The first is that he is a keen European (unlike Marine, who argues for a “Frexit”, and is unsurprisingly chummy with Russia’s Vladimir Putin). The other reason is that Macron understands that if France is to compete effectively it has to reform its attitude to work, deregulation and so on. The economy needs a shake-up, which would benefit not only France but help strengthen the eurozone. That’s important for Britain’s trading future, too, whatever form of Brexit emerges from the May government’s current quagmire.

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Keeping European Extremism at Bay

Posted by jonathanfryer on Monday, 14th December, 2015

EU imageThere was a collective sigh of relief among Europe’s mainstream body politic last night when the Front National failed to gain control of a single region of France. Marine Le Pen unsurprisingly blamed the electoral system, but the French model of two-round elections actually served the electorate well, as in many regions the two candidate run-off posed a simple question: do you want a FN administration or not? And the majority decided they did not, coming out to vote in larger numbers than in the first round and rallying behind whichever candidate from the centre left or centre right was left in the run-off. That’s the good news. But it should not blind us to the fact that both Ms Le Pen and her niece scored over 40% of the vote in their regions and that the FN is now the main opposition party in many areas of France. Their strong performance was undoubtedly helped by the murderous attacks by Islamist extremists in Paris last month, but that is not the only reason.

Nigel FarageThere has been a swing to right-wing, anti-immigrant parties in many parts of the EU, partly in response to the refugee and migrant crisis. Hungary has a particularly unpleasant government that enjoys strong public support and Polish voters moved to the right in recent elections. In the Netherlands, an anti-immigrant party is back leading some opinion polls after a period of decline. One brighter spot is the UK, where UKIP seems to be on the wane, having peaked at the European elections last year. But we cannot be complacent. When things go badly wrong in a society, whether relating to security or to the economy, the siren call of the far right will be appealing to a significant section of the population, which is why other parties, including the UK’s Liberal Democrats, need to have a clear and strong message to counter it.

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