Jonathan Fryer

Writer, Lecturer, Broadcaster and Liberal Democrat Politician

Posts Tagged ‘Article 50’

Stop the Coup!

Posted by jonathanfryer on Sunday, 1st September, 2019

Stop the Coup 2Up and down Britain marches and rallies have been taking place to oppose Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s move to prorogue (i.e. suspend) Parliament by about five weeks from the second week of September, thus leaving precious little time for opponents of a No Deal Brexit to scupper his plans to take the United Kingdom out of the EU on 31 October. Former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith has branded the protesters as a “Corbyn hate mob”, as the government’s rhetoric against those who believe Britain is better and safer within the EU becomes ever more extreme. Rather as on the anti-Brexit marches that have taken place over the past three years, the self-styled “Stop the Coup” protests have mainly been populated by the anxious educated middle classes and the young, orderly and cheerful, despite their anger at what is going on. Many are not members of any political party and only a minority are Corbynistas (enthusiastic supporters of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn). These demonstrations have been nothing like the sometimes violent anti-Poll Tax riots of the Thatcher years. The police on duty, far from clashing with protesters, were often smiling and petting the numerous dogs. But there is an important difference between the current protests and the earlier anti-Brexit marches. The latter were big, one-off events, usually in the capital, whereas the new demos are all over the country — indeed, even in some foreign cities where there is a British migrant population or just holiday-makers determined the make their voices heard. Lots more are planned today and as next week could be crunch-time in Parliament for blocking No Deal or setting in motion a process to prolong Article 50 (the notice of Britain’s EU withdrawal). Meanwhile, Boris Johnson and his non-elected eminence grise, Dominic Cummings, have warned rebel Conservative MPs — including a significant number of former Cabinet Ministers — that they will not be allowed to stand as Conservatives at the next general election (which could be occur this autumn) if they oppose what the government is doing. Bravely, some, like David Gauke, former Justice Minister, have come out saying they will do what their conscience tells them is best for the country and not be cowed into silence.

Posted in Brexit, UK politics, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Boris Johnson’s Hiding to Nothing

Posted by jonathanfryer on Thursday, 22nd August, 2019

Boris Johnson and Angela MerkelThe UK Prime Minister has been calling on his German and French counterparts this past couple of days, in an attempt to persuade them to alter Britain’s Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, specifically by dropping the controversial Irish “backstop”. Both Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have been emphatic that they will do nothing that could undermine the integrity of the European single market or possibly endanger the Good Friday Agreement, which ushered in an era of relative calm in Northern Ireland and is seen as vital by most communities on the island of Ireland. Frau Merkel, rather in the guise of a secondary school teacher giving a lazy student a bit of a dressing down, gave Boris Johnson 30 days to devise some workable alternative that would enable frictionless trade and movement between the Irish Republic and the North, but as no-one has been able to come up with a potential solution over the past three years the prospect of that do not look good. However, Mr Johnson’s spin doctors will doubtless portray as a victory the fact that the German Chancellor had suggested some amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement is possible, though that frankly will be clutching at straws.

Boris Johnson and Emmanuel MacronFor his part, President Macron was in jovial mood, joking to Boris Johnson that he could always use a small table in the Elysée Palace as a footstool (which the clown then promptly did, creating a very unfortunate image). But M. Macron was adamant that there is no alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement and that Theresa May got the best deal for Britain that was available. He also twisted the knife in by saying that of course Britain could still revoke Article 50, and thus stay a member of the EU under its current terms, at any time up until leaving day. That date, Boris Johnson has said, will be 31 October, come hell or high water, but if his government persists with that line then a No Deal crash-out is highly likely. Even the British government’s own analyses predict that would be an economic disaster and special interest groups such as farmers are alarmed that their livelihoods could be almost instantly wiped out. Despite devoting huge sums of money into “preparing” for disruptions to food and medicines supplies in the case of No Deal the government cannot guarantee there will not be a crisis. O)r indeed civil unrest. The Prime Minister and the arch-Brexiteer Tory media are already blaming the EU for this looming catastrophe. But be in no doubt: the fault lies firmly at Boris Johnson’s door.

Posted in Brexit, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Put It to the People

Posted by jonathanfryer on Saturday, 23rd March, 2019

Brexit march 1Today I went on the People’s Vote march against Brexit in central London, along with what the organisers say were more than one million people. I can’t authenticate that figure, but the demonstration was certainly bigger than the last one I went on. Liberal Democrats, unsurprisingly, were out in force. The front of the march had already reached Parliament Square before our section even got moving on Park Lane and it took me four hours to get from A to B. What was similar to previous events of this kind, however, was the good humour — not least in the home-made placards — and the great sense of solidarity even among those who would normally find themselves divided by politics or age. There was even a great samba drummers band to keep up the spirits. But there was also a sense of urgency, as Prime Minister Theresa May has so far continued to plough on with her bad Brexit deal, despite countless objections, and in principle Britain could crash out of the EU next Friday without a deal — though that possibility has mercifully been reduced by the willingness of the EU to give Britain an extension to Article 50 to try and sort things out.

Brexit march 2Next week in Parliament is going to be something to watch, as MPs try to seize greater control over the parliamentary agenda and various different possibilities are floated. At the moment, a People’s Vote or new referendum is not the most favoured option of a majority of MPs but it could develop into that as other options fall by the wayside. All those who witnessed the march must have been struck by the turnout and the passion. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, pointedly absented himself for London, which is something I think he will very soon live to regret. Of course, if Article50 is prolonged beyond either of the two dates mentioned in Brussels on Thursday — 12 April or 22 May — then there will have to be European elections in the UK in late May, as indeed there should be. They will certainly be a good gauge of the popular mood if they happen. And having to closely got to being elected to the European Parliament twice, I shall certainly throw my hat in the ring.

Posted in Brexit, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Brexit Wrecking Ball

Posted by jonathanfryer on Sunday, 17th February, 2019

B14E3D6B-1E23-4C31-B818-F231C26D827FThe UK airline Flybmi is going into administration, citing Brexit uncertainty as the reason; there is no guarantee they will be able to fly between European destinations if Britain leaves the EU on 29 March as scheduled. The company is just one of many that are closing or else shifting their operations to another member state of the European Union. According to experts’ figures released this week, Brexit is costing the UK £800million a week, and we haven’t even left yet. Note that this is nearly twice what Brexiteers claimed we would save through Brexit, the windfall supposedly being passed to the NHS. It seems inconceivable that the Conservative Party, as the traditional party of Business, should allow this economic vandalism to take place. But the sad truth is that the Tory party has been taken over by right-wing, xenophobic Brexiteer extremists and Prime Minister Theresa May is more interested in saving her own political skin than saving the country.

BFA67A8C-098E-4D73-828E-ADFA9A4762FABrexit is now showing its true colours: it is a wrecking ball that is smashing many of the economic gains of recent years, as well as dividing society. Just how bad those divisions are has been shown by the violent confrontations outside Parliament — yellow-vested Brexiteers assaulting police yesterday — and the fact that several female Remainer MPs have been advised to move home or else avoid travelling alone in order to stay safe. Meanwhile, Parliament has shown itself incapable of uniting behind one forward course of action and the Labour Party Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has proved to be miserably inadequate and indecisive, thus failing to provide a true Opposition. No wonder a number of both Labour and Conservative MPs are thinking of resigning their party whip, with the Conservatives in thrall to Jacob Rees-Mogg’s European Reform Group and Labour to what Mike Gapes MP has called a Stalinist cult.

1EC0B2E1-3999-4261-A6E2-50B828249EFAOpinion polls have recently consistently shown that were there to be a referendum on whether to accept Mrs May’s “deal” or to stay in the EU, a majority would vote to remain. The People’s Vote campaign, backed by the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens, is still keeping up the pressure and has called for a mass demonstration in London on 23 March, less than a week before D for Departure Day. One hopes that something significant may have happened before then — ideally extending Article 50 to allow for a People’s Vote. But it is important that people turn out in huge numbers on the March. Moreover, the organisers must ensure that EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU are properly represented, as they have more to lose personally than most of us.

Posted in Brexit, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Brexit Briefing

Posted by jonathanfryer on Thursday, 24th January, 2019

sarah ludford and william wallaceLast night I was at the Liberal Democrats’ national headquarters for a briefing on Brexit organised by Southwark LibDems and addressed by three of the key party spokespeople in the House of Lords, Dick Newby, William Wallace and Sarah Ludford. Though only the House of Commons has the necessary clout to stop Brexit or significantly alter Theresa May’s “deal”, the Lords have been keeping the whole sorry Brexit saga under intense scrutiny and have been able to draw on the expertise of members with considerable knowledge on the subject, from the architect of Article50, John Kerr, to the former European Commissioner, Chris Patten. Sarah said there had been a noticeable shift in the attitude of many Conservative peers as the full complexity of disentangling the UK from 45 years of economic integration with Europe has become clearer.

dick newbyThe LibDem Lords team work closely with the Party’s MPs, especially Tom Brake, who is the national Brexit spokesperson. Next Tuesday is going to be a very important moment as the Commons will vote on amendments and motions including one from Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles which would, if passed, recommend extending Article 50 till the end of the year. That would in principle give time for any new approach to the Brexit impasse — for example, backing for a Norway-style deal (in which the UK would remain in the single market but have no say in formulating EU rules) or organising a fresh referendum, with an option to Remain. The three peers felt that at the moment there is probably not a clear majority in the House of Commons for what has been dubbed a People’s Vote, but more MPs and even Cabinet Ministers are warming to the idea. If Article 50 were to be extended beyond 2 July — the opening of the new European Parliament — then of course Britain would probably have to organise European elections in May, which would be both a challenge and an opportunity. Dick Newby told me that he thought no real contingency plans for that are in place within government institutions, but watch this space.

Posted in Brexit, Liberal Democrats, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Britain All at Sea

Posted by jonathanfryer on Friday, 18th January, 2019

britain all at seaOne of the most popular tropes of the colonial era was that Britain rules the waves. But for the country that once boasted that it had an empire on which the sun never set, another metaphor is more apt today: Britain is all at sea. Ever since the shock result of the EU Referendum in June 2016, the UK has been on a downward spiral in terms of international standing, while at the same time riven by increasingly bitter internal divisions. Prime Minister Theresa May called an unnecessary general election in 2017, saying she wanted a healthy mandate with which to negotiate with our 27 EU partners Britain’s orderly departure from the Union. Instead, she lost her parliamentary majority, but she decided to ignore the message of that and instead has ploughed on with her vision of Brexit. This she has continued to do single mindedly ever since, losing several Brexit Ministers along the way. The deal she ended up with pleases nobody, yet she is insisting that the choice now before the country is between that and a catastrophic No Deal crashing out of the EU on 29 March.

leave means leave Parliament blew a giant raspberry at her deal the other day, defeating it by an historic 230 votes, yet she continues to press on with it, like a stubborn ox. The Leader of the Official Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile flaps around like an impotent mynah bird screeching “General election! General election!”, though there is no way the Conservatives and the Northern Irish DUP who prop them up are going to back one. And meanwhile the clock ticks on to Brexit departure day. Just how near to the deadline will it have to come before the Government blinks and either asks for an extension of Article 50 (or, preferably, rescinds it)? Meanwhile, the arch-Brexiteers have gone into full Blitz spirit, savouring the prospect of Britain standing alone, even if life will be more difficult. At a Leave Means Leave rally in central London last night, the more radical Leave supporters celebrated the notion of No Deal. Just show two fingers to the rest of the Europe, they argued,. And to Scotland and Northern Ireland (both of which voted Remain in 2016). And to Remainers. No wonder the rest of the world thinks Britain has gone completely mad, bobbing along in a leaking boat in the mid-Atlantic, singing Rule Britannia, as it risks sinks beneath the waves.

Posted in Brexit, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

No Room for Jingoism

Posted by jonathanfryer on Monday, 3rd April, 2017

Michael HowardJust four days after Article 50 was triggered by the Prime Minister, a former leader of the Conservative Party, Michael Howard, has declared cheerfully that Mrs May would be prepared to go to war to keep Gibraltar British, just as Margaret Thatcher did over the Falklands. It is hard to imagine a more provocative and inane statement at a time when the British government is preparing to enter negotiations with our current 27 EU partners to leave the European Union. In last year’s EU Referendum, the people of Gibraltar voted almost unanimously for the UK to stay in the Union, as they realise that their position is more secure vis-a-vis Spain that way. Leaving the EU will put them once more into a vulnerable position which could see them being blockaded by Spain as the frontier with Spain will become an EU external border. As if that were not bad enough, threatening possible military action over Gibraltar is a red rag to a bull to the fiercely proud Spanish. Moreover, it gives the impression that Britain has learnt nothing from its four decades of EU membership and how the EU has helped resolve contentious issues peacefully on a continent previously torn asunder by wars.

Theresa May 5What makes Lord Howard’s inept intervention even more serious, however, is that leading Conservatives, cheered on by UKIP and the Brexit Press, have been adopting an increasingly jingoistic tone more characteristic of the 19th century than of the 21st. There have been calls to efface every trace of the EU in Britain, including going back to old-fashioned blue UK passports. There have even been demands in some quarters to return to imperial measures, even though metrification pre-dated our entry into the EU. Foreigners are meanwhile increasingly coming under verbal and even physical attack from the more extreme elements in British society. No wonder thousands of EU nationals have already started leaving the country, even though Britain will remain a member of the EU for another two years. Far from standing up to this wave of unpleasant nationalism and jingoism, Theresa May is riding it, championing her red, white and blue Brexit and hammering on about Britain being different. She is increasingly delusional and dangerous, frankly, and if she and her Tory colleagues carry on in this belligerent and bigoted fashion she will alienate our closest friends, the other EU nations, and ensure that Brexit is an unmitigated disaster.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

My New Year’s Resolution: Stop Brexit!

Posted by jonathanfryer on Saturday, 31st December, 2016

stop-brexit-smallI don’t make a New Year’s Resolution every year; the last was two years ago, in Surinam, when I vowed to write and publish my childhood memoir, Eccles Cakes, which I successfully achieved this summer. But the Resolution I am making this time as I see 2016 out in Brazil is far more ambitious and is not something I can do alone: Stop Brexit! In June, the British electorate (or that part of it included in this particular franchise) voted narrowly in an advisory referendum that it would prefer to leave the European Union, and the Conservative government now presided over by Theresa May is pressing ahead with the Brexit process, despite warnings that this will cause a decade of disruption and billions of pounds worth of economic loss. She still has not made her “plan” public, which rather makes me doubt that she has one. But in principle she is sticking to her timetable of triggering Article 50 by the end of March, after which there would be two years of negotiations with our 27 EU partners. There is a difference of opinion over whether Article 50 could be reversed, once triggered, but clearly the chances of stopping Brexit would be greater if Article 50 is never triggered. So it is crucial that over the next three months the realities of Brexit, rather than the fantasies of much of the EU Referendum campaign, are set out and that the British electorate is then given the chance to answer the question: is that really what you want? That is essentially the position outlined by LibDem leader, Tim Farron, though in a longer time-frame. His Labour counterpart, Jeremy Corbyn, has alas sold the pass, by pledging to champion a “people’s Brexit”, whatever that might be. Of course, the LibDems can’t bring about such a Brexit reversal on their own. Everyone who understands that Brexit would damage both Britain and the EU can be part of a campaign, for which the European Movement is one of the cheerleaders. Nigel Farage notably argued that a 52:48 vote in June’s Referendum would be “unfinished business”, and for once I believe he was right. As nation we should have a second chance to set the course for the future. By my reckoning, that’s a fine New Year’s Resolution.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Theresa May’s Nasty New Year Wish-List

Posted by jonathanfryer on Friday, 30th December, 2016

theresa-may-smallFor Liberals, 2016 has been a grim year. The EU Referendum provided a narrow win for Leave and the dogs of hate and prejudice were thereby released. Over in America, Donald Trump became President-elect, thanks to that country’s arcane electoral system. Several EU member states started to question the principle of free movement following a huge influx of refugees and migrants. But one of the worst things of all has been the performance of Theresa May since she took office as UK Prime Minister following David Cameron’s resignation. Although she was a lukewarm Remainer in the Referendum campaign, she has embraced the agenda of UKIP and the rabid Tory Right Brexiteers in her pursuance of the goal of a “hard” Brexit — in other words, for seeing a situation in which Britain will leave both the European single market and the customs union, even though this will have a devastating effect on the UK economy, especially the financial sector. She has put our EU partners’ backs up by the arrogance of her negotiating strategy, for example demanding that Britain retain a strong influence in Europol, and she has set an unrealistically tight deadline of invoking Article 50 by the end of March, which will not leave sufficient time for the preparation of a nuanced negotiating position (for which the UK does not have sufficient qualified civil servants anyway). Even more disturbing is Mrs May’s apparent determination to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights, despite the fact that British legal experts were instrumental in its formulation and only the dictatorship of Belarus is outside the ECHR. Moreover, it’s not only our European allies whom Theresa May is alienating. After the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, made an important speech criticising Israel for its settlements policy in occupied Palestine, Mrs May told him off, like some third-rate headmistress. The depth of her incompetence and stupidity is being revealed on a daily basis, yet still she blunders on, convinced that she knows best. The irony is that is was Mrs May who years ago warned the Conservatives that they were seen as the Nasty Party. Well, if the Prime Minister’s 2017 wish list comes about then it is going to prove itself to be even nastier.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »