Jonathan Fryer

Writer, Lecturer, Broadcaster and Liberal Democrat Politician

Archive for May 5th, 2017

Ciao, UKIP?

Posted by jonathanfryer on Friday, 5th May, 2017

paul-nuttallThough the UK media are mainly focusing on Conservative gains in yesterday’s county council elections, in many ways the more remarkable story is the complete collapse of UKIP. The party lost every seat it was defending and one can’t help but wonder how long the sole UKIP candidate who gained a seat, in Burnley, in Lancashire, will last. Of course, there are still some UKIP local councillors left, but presumably not for long. UKIP’s leader Paul Nuttall was trying to put a brave face on it today, claiming that he did not really mind if UKIP voters had defected en masse to the Tories, as Theresa May is implementing the sort of Brexit that UKIP wants (though maybe not quite quickly enough). It’s true that in the process Mrs May is sounding ever more like a UKIP Prime Minister, lambasting not just Brussels but Johnny Foreigner. It will be interesting to see if her tone changes after next month’s general election, though it almost certainly will not before then, as she wants to ensure those former UKIP voters turn out for the Conservatives on 8 June. Paul Nuttall, meanwhile, is standing in the uber-Leave constituency of Boston and Skegness, but as all of Lincolnshire’s UKIP country councillors were swept out yesterday the likelihood of his winning that parliamentary seat is little better than zero. Nor is any other seat likely to go UKIP’s way. Instead, there is an interesting polarisation over Brexit between Strong and Stable Mable in the blue corner and chippy Tim Farron in the yellow. Where Labour is depends on which Labour candidate you speak to, though Jeremy Corbyn’s offer of a People’s Brexit sounds suspiciously like Mable’s red-white-and-blue Brexit. Of course, the general election is not going to be all about Brexit, nor should it be, but the Conservatives are portraying the Brexit challenge as Mrs May’s Falklands moment, in the hope that she will be able to mirror Mrs Thatcher’s jingoistic triumph at the polls in 1982-1983, with most of the mainstream Press cheering her on.

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