UKIP’s Death Spiral?
Posted by jonathanfryer on Tuesday, 18th October, 2016
The UKIP MEP, Steven Woolfe, who was favourite to become the party’s new leader, has dramatically quit UKIP, though he intends to stay on as an MEP (why wouldn’t he, given the salary and benefits?). He recently spent several days in hospital after a fracas in the European Parliament with one of his fellow UKIP MEPs and he probably needs to watch his back now. He stuck the knife into his colleagues, metaphorically, with his resignation by declaring that UKIP is in a “death spiral” and that is “ungovernable”. Diane James, UKIP’s version of Lady Jane Grey, recently gave up the leadership after only 18 days, saying she did not have the confidence of the party, even though she got a firm mandate from UKIP members. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage, twice the party’s leader, is in a caretaker role, though he seems to think advising US presidential candidate Donald Trump to be a higher priority. Farage famously is at odds with UKIP’s single Westminster MP, Douglas Carswell. So things are looking pretty dire. However, it would be unwise to write UKIP off (much as the Conservatives, in particular, would like to do). MEPs defecting or setting up their own party have been a feature of UKIP’s history over the past decade or so, but that did not stop them coming top of the poll in the UK in the European elections in 2014. Some people argue that now that the Conservative government unwittingly finds itself in a situation where it is aiming to oversee Brexit then UKIP ceases to have a purpose. But if Prime Minister Theresa May is unable to bring about the “hard Brexit” she indicated at the Tory party conference then UKIP may be able to rally the more hardline Brexiteers. And of course, if Brexit doesn’t happen — a slim possibility, but not impossible — then UKIP would definitely be re-energised — with Nigel Farage once again at the helm?