How Permanent a Ceasefire?

After several false starts, a truce has been agreed between Israel and Gaza, with both Egypt and the United States playing a significant role in the process. This will be a relief both for those Israelis who have suffered rocket fire from Hamas and from other groups in Gaza and the far greater number of Gazans who have been the deliberate or collateral targets of Israeli firepower. But does the truce offer more than a breathing space? Essentially, the core situation has not changed: Gaza is still subject to a cruel blockade, which means that many products, including building materials, are kept out by Israel and even humanitarian aid convoys from Turkey and other friendly states cannot get through by sea. Israel has made no firm offer to lift that blockade, though at least the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Cairo is more sympathetic to the Gazan’s plight than Hosni Mubarak was. What has received little attention, though, is the amount of protest that has broken out in the Occupied West Bank, causing some Arab commentators to wonder whether a Third Intifada is on the cards. What seems to me to be certain is that until the Israeli government changes its policies and starts the evacuation of the West Bank, rather than continuing to build settlements both there and in East Jerusalem in defiance of International Law, there will be no stability in the region. To my mind, the Arab-Israeli conflict is merely on hold, and probably not for very long.

Tahrir: A Critical Explosion

What better way to celebrate in London the first anniversary of the 25 January Egyptian Revolutionary movement than to join a stimulating crowd of fellow hacks, human rights activists, Arabists and UK-based Atab intellectuals at the launch of a new book about the extraordinary events in Cairo last year by Abdel Latif El-Manawy, who had the job of overseeing news content at the state broadcaster, the Egyptian Radio and Television Union (ERTU), in the ancien régime’s final days? From his privileged insider position he was able –and willing — to tell Hosni Mubarak it was time to go, but that still makes him a controversial figure among many Egyptian revolutionaries who wonder quite how he was able to slide gracefully from the old situation into the new one in which the army has essentially been in charge. Mr El-Manawy last night described what happened at Tahrir Square as a ‘critical explosion’. I picked up my copy of ‘Tahrir: The Last 18 Days of Mubarak’ at the party thrown by Gilgamesh publishers at Daunt Books in Marylebone, so have not yet had the chance to read it. But I shall be fascinated to digest not only Abdel Latif’s El-Manawy’s take on the events between the first mass occupation of Tahrir Square and Mubarak’s stepping down, but also to see how he reconciles what he did at the head of an organisation essentially treading a tightrope between media objectivity and propaganda. In the meantime, I shall reserve judgement. Besides, everyone at the launch was too exhilirated by the events of the past year to carp, despite concerns about how successful Egypt’s revolution will prove to be in te end, and even deeper fears about the prognosis for Syria. But in the cold light of morning, we shall see. I shall review the book in due course.

Link: http://gilgamesh-publishing.co.uk

The Mubarak Dilemma

Sitting in Beirut watching Al Jazeera as Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s ousted President, was being wheeled into the Cairo courtroom today for the prosector’s final statement raised mixed emotions inside me. Like many of my Egyptian friends, I am still in a half-daze of disbelief that the Revolution actually managed to get rid of the wretched man. But as a European — and therefore a citizen of a continent which has eschewed the death penalty (at least so far as the EU 27 are concerned) – I am also perplexed by the prosecutor’s demand for the death sentence. I have no doubt of Mubarak’s guilt, not only in overseeing the killings and harassment of protestors duing the Tahrir Square demonstrations, but also of presiding over threee decades of a corrupt regime in which torture and human rights abuses were commonplace and he and his family syphoned off not millions but many billions of dollars. To add insult to injury, he was even trying to engineer a succession for his favourite son, Gamal, who has at times during recent weeks been alongside him in the dock. Unlike in the case of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, an even more monstruous dictator who was despatched without dignity after his death sentence, Mubarak is unlikely to face the hangman’s noose. He is seriously ill — though how seriously is a matter of controversy– and he is quite likely to expire before all legal proceedings (including probable appeals) are exhausted. I believe the highest level of command in the Egyptian army would also be extremely reluctant to see their former Commander in Chief swing. But in the meantime, many of us who metophorically popped champagne corks when Mubarak finally resigned may well find ourselvew obliged to sign petitions against his execution, in favour of life imprisonment, on humanitarian grounds.

 

Wadah Khanfar, Al Jazeera and the Arab Spring

The Arab Awakening has been an emotional experience for many people in North Africa and the Middle East; I confess I too wept on 11 February when the announcement finally came in Cairo’s Tahrir Square that Hosni Mubarak had stepped down and a great roar went up from the crowd, who were just finishing their prayers. All this seen live on Al Jazeera, of course, the Qatar-based channel that streamed the Egyptian Revolution. This evening, at City University in London, the recently retired (or evicted?) Director General of Al Jazeera, the Palestinian-born Wadah Khanfar, admitted while giving his largely unscripted James Cameron Memorial Lecture that he too had wept twice during the events of the recent months. Once was when his car ran into a celebrating crowd on the Corniche in Doha on 11 February and people who recognised him entered his car and kissed him to thank him for the contribution to the Arab Spring (if one must call it that) of freedom and democracy by his channel. The second time was when an Al Jazeera reporter who had been arrested and tortured in Libya by Gaddafi’s thug apparatus came back to Doha after his release and presented Wadah Khanfar with an apple, which had been given to him by one of his jailors, who had brought it from his garden and who apologised for his treatment, thanked him for what Al Jazeera was doing and said that he and the other officers had only done what they had done because the regime was holding their wives and children hostage.

After the lecture, I asked Wadah if the fact that he had been replaced as Director General by a member of Qatar’s ruling family might signal a change in editorial policy. He said no, and I would like to believe him. But there is no doubt that several rulers in the Gulf were very angry about Al Jazeera’s initial reporting of the crackdown against demonstrators in Bahrain. And I fear that if the Arab Awakening does eventually sweep through the GCC states, Al Jazeera might be emasculated and then die.

 

Mubarak Test for Egypt’s Revolution

Former President Hosni Mubarak was wheeled into Court today to face charges of corruption and of ordering the killing of protestors earlier this year. His trial is the greatest test so far for Egypt’s Revolution. For the families of those who suffered at the hands of his brutal security forces, this day is almost too good to be true, seeing the old dictator on a trolley bed in a cage, but whether he will be fit enough to endure the whole procedure is another matter. Since stepping down after mass demonstrations in Cairo’s Tahrir Square and elsewhere, Mr Mubarak has spent most of his time in hospital in Sharm El-Sheikh. Conflicting reports about his exact state of health have emerged over the past five months, some claiming his ‘illnesses’ are a total sham. Either way, to put a former ruler on trial for alleged past misdeeds is something of a novelty in North Africa and I suspect Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi will be keeping a close eye on proceedings. Because so much of the media focus has shifted to Libya and Syria recently, it is all too easy for people in Europe to forget that Egypt’s Revolution is by no means complete. The willingness of the army to relinquish the hold on power that it now has as well as the outcome of November’s elections will both we worth watching.

Egypt’s Tahrir Revolution and the New Media

There’s been a tendency to label the momentous changes that have taken place in Egypt over the past five months as the Facebook Revolution, but as was stressed by the panelists at an excellent seminar hosted by ThomsonReuters at their Canary Wharf HQ this evening, although new media helped, the real victors were the Egyptian people, who overcame their fear of the Mubarak regime and its state security services and held out in Cairo’s Tahrir Square until the regime fell. Former Google rep Wael Ghonim, who was one of the Revolution’s stars, joined us all on video link from Dubai, where he is busy writing a book about the whole experience. Dr Sally Moore, a British Egyptian psychiatrist who was in the thick of things in January/February, reminded us how many women were involved in the popular uprising and emphasized how important it is that their voices are not lost. Srdja Popovic, Executive Director of the Centre for Applied Non-Violent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) brought an interesting Serbian perspective from someone who had been at the heart of the action that brought down Milosevic. He argued that the three essential components for any such exercise of People Power are unity, planning and non-violent discipline — all of which the Egyptian revolution had (though sadly not the Saffron Revolution in Burma, for example). The panelists were not worried about the fact that the Egyptian Revolution was leaderless, though now it is important that strong political figures emerge who can appeal to the electorate in September. Sally, for one, thought the elections ought to be postponed, as there is no way that the scores of new political parties, groups and coalitions can get their act together in time, especially as life as normal will shut down during August because of Ramadan. But the likelihood is that the elections will indeed take place as planned and it must not only be the Muslim Brotherhood that has the organisation to succeed.

Link: www.Trust.org

A Bloody Remembrance of the Nakba

Every year the Palestinian people mark 15 May — the anniversary of the 1948 founding of the State of Israel — as the Nakba or Catastrophe. This year, there were larger demonstrations than usual, not just in Gaza and the Occupied West Bank but also in the Golan Heights of Syria, bordering the Israeli-occupied zone, and along the border between Lebanon and Israel.  At least 15 were reported killed in clashes and many scores more wounded. Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu says he has ordered troops to act with restraint, but nothing contradicts the fact that the IDS fired on unarmed protestors. Despite this tragic turn of events, however, there was also a mood of optimism in the Occupied Territories today, both because of the recent agreement between Hamas and Fatah to try to ovecome their differences and form a government of national unity, and because of the Arab Awakening that has been sweeping North Africa and the Middle East. Interestingly, in Cairo, thousands of people turned out to protest in commemmoration of the Nakba outside the Israeli Embassy. Late into the night clashes with security forces continued there. But there is little doubt that with the downfall of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt — Israel’s key Arab treaty pertner — is no longer such a friendly neighbour prepared to accept continuing Israeli oppression of the Palestinians.

Nick Clegg, the EU and North Africa

Speaking at Britain’s Permanent Representation to the European Union in Brussels yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg urged the EU to rise to the challenge of the dramatic political change taking place in North Africa. He is correct that Europe needs to rethink radically its approach towards the region. He said that what is happening in ‘Europe’s backyard’ is a defining moment for the EU as much as for the North African region; this is a ‘precious moment of opportunity’ for North Africa: ‘precious because it is the people, especially the young people, who are speaking up, and they are doing so for the most part peacefully and with dignity.’ A new form of partnership across the Mediterranean does indeed now need to be forged. The EU’s High Representative for External Affairs, Catherine Ashton, did go promptly to Cairo after the Egyptian Revolution brought down Hosni Mubarak and it is important that the EU puts together and promotes quickly a united policy towards North Africa. Nick Clegg’s speech was a useful clarion call in that respect. But predictably it received immediate criticism from Eurosceptic Conservatives who froth at the mouth whenever the EU is mentioned. They are wrong and should be slapped down by David Cameron. I agree with Nick: this is a defining moment for the EU and we must not flunk it.

Egypt Is an Inspiration for Us All

For the past fortnight I have been glued to my iplayer, watching Al Jazeera hour after hour, as events in Egypt have unfolded. Like the crowds in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, I have experienced a roller-coaster of emotions, from euphoria to despair. Last night was a low point, to put it mildly, as the widely anticpated resignation by President Mubarak didn’t happen. But the crowds went out onto the streets again after Friday prayers today, defiant. So there was justifiable ecstasy this evening when Hosni Mubarak did eventually stand down. Ecstasy mixed with relief, as this could have turned really nasty had the regime dug its heels in more firmly. As it is, around 300 pro-democracy demonstrators are understood to have lost their lives since the protests began. In recent hours, Western leaders have been reacting — most European heads of government, including Britain’s David Cameron, in rather muted terms, expressing hopes that Egypt can move safely from what is now a sort of military fostering to genuine multi-party democracy. The United States stood longer by President Mubarak than most states did, yet tonight Barack Obama trumped his European counterparts by giving a moving short speech, praising the Egyptian people. They have indeed been an inspiration for us all.

Who Is Mohamed ElBaradei?

Though this week’s street protests in Egypt have conveyed a clear message, namely that the Egyptian people want President Hosni Mubarak to stand down, the movement has lacked a clear leader around whom it can coalesce. The name that has nonetheless been in the frame for some time has been Mohamed ElBaradei, the 68-year-old former head of the International Atomic Agency (IAEA), who has spent much of his professional life abroad, including a stint as part of Egypt’s mission to the United Nations in New York. He attracted some criticism earlier in the week for not stepping up forcefully as a potential replacement for Mubarak, and in fact only returning to Egypt very late in the process of what one can now call a Revolution, but it woud seem that he has been busy behind the scenes, building a wide coalition of opposition forces. That coalition includes more than a dozen political parties (though obviously not the ruling NDP) and, significantly, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic force that is in principle outlawed but in practice plays a significant role in society. The Muslim Brotherhood has endorsed ElBaradei as a spokesman for this new coalition, which could pave the way to his becoming interim President — though for that to happen, Mubarak must stand down. If he wants to escape a worse fate, Mubarak would be well advised to do that as soon as possible, leaving the way open for ElBaradei and a transition to a more open and democratic society which is responsive to the Egyptian people’s real needs.