Labour could be heading for its worst general election defeat since 1931, according to Eastleigh MP and Liberal Democrat Shadow Home Secretary Chris Huhne, who was speaking at the annual dinner of Barnet LibDems at the National Liberal Club this evening. That election took place during the worst economic crisis previous to the one we are now in. Ramsay MacDonald’s government had proved unable to agree on how to get Britain out of the Great Depression, with a result that on Tuesday (sic) 27 October, 1931, the British electorate not only threw out Labour; it reduced the party to just 52 seats in the House of Commons — fewer than the Liberal Democrats have today. The Conservatives under Stanley Baldwin won by a landslide in seats, if not exactly in voters, though this was, interestingly, the last British general election at which the winning party garnered more than 50 per cent of the votes.
Does Gordon Brown have nighmares about being MacDonald Mark II, one wonders? Or is he too thick-skinned for that? From the bags under his eyes it would appear that he isn’t getting enough sleep, poor man, whatever the reason. But of course, Gordon Brown’s big worry is that Labour MPs will have another go at trying to get him out, possibly around the autumn party conference, in the hope that any other leader would lessen the number of likely losses next year. Chris believes — as I do — that Alan Johnson is the most likely victor in such a situation (David Miliband having funked it, not once but twice). The good thing about that is that Johnson favours a half-way decent form of proportional representation. Actually leading the Labour Party to victory in 2010 might be beyond the capabilities of any man (or woman), however. But David Cameron is not convincing enough to do a Stanley Baldwin and too many of his closest colleagues have emerged really badly from the Daily Telegraph expenses exposés. So, Labour is indeed likely to slump badly at the general election — but the beneficiaries won’t just be the Tories. LibDems can expect to pick up seats from Labour, not least in the North of England and probably a few in London too.
Link: www.barnetlibdems.org.uk
Jonathan Fryer 