Jonathan Fryer

Has the UKIP Bubble Burst?

Posted by jonathanfryer on Sunday, 20th January, 2013

Nigel FarageAn interesting opinion poll from YouGov this weekend, asking people how they will vote in next year’s European elections, has UKIP in fourth place, behind the Liberal Democrats (LAB 38%, CON 30%, LD 13%, UKIP 12%, SNP/PC 3%, Grn 3%, BNP 1%). That’s quite a bump down from even a week ago, but more significantly indicates that all the hoo-haa about UKIP over the past few months may actually have damaged the party’s prospects. Its leader, Nigel Farage, has been ubiquitous on the broadcast media, but that blanket coverage of him does not seem to have done UKIP much good. Maybe it has highlighted the fact that while Mr Farage may be an amusing cheeky chappie at times, others in the party are more disturbing. Or indeed simply that people actually don’t trust a cheeky chappie with running something important (think how Ken Livingstone ploughed in last years London Mayoral election). What does seem to be true — unless later developments prove otherwise — is that UKIP has peaked too soon. The Euro-elections are still nearly 18 months away, and public opinion appears to be becoming more objective about the benefits of Britain’s membership of the European Union, despite all the europhobic bile poured out by certain popular newspapers. Indeed, another opinion poll from YouGov released this weekend suggests that 40% of the public would vote to keep the UK in the EU as opposed to 34% who would vote to leave. That is a very dramatic turn-around from even a few months ago and gives one hope that the comments of prominent businssmen such as Richard Branson and John Browne are having some effect — despite the shilly-shallying of Prime Minister David Cameron.

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2 Responses to “Has the UKIP Bubble Burst?”

  1. Doubting Thomas said

    Maybe it’s naivety on my part but I suspect that once and if UKIP becomes a serious threat to the Tories, the venom of the Tory press will turn on them and their unsavoury aspects will be exposed – by this I mean their cavalier attitude to expenses, their fringe associates in the European Parliament (although I suppose the Tories are not entirely without sin here) and their almost total lack of effectiveness anywhere. Throw in the bitterness of their internal politics and much fun and merriment, may be found.

  2. [...] Has the UKIP bubble burst? by Jonathan Fryer on Jonathan Fryer . The more we see of Nigel Farage, the less we seem to like [...]

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