Thailand’s Next Prime Minister?
Posted by jonathanfryer on Sunday, 14th December, 2008
Yesterday I was one of the guest speakers at a Liberal International/Friedrich Naumann Stiftung conference in Bangkok on ‘Safeguarding Democracy: the case of Thailand and its regional/global impacts’. But the star turn in the morning was Abhisit Vejjajiva, the British-born and Oxford-educated leader of the Democrat Party of Thailand, who will almost certainly become the country’s new Prime Minister tomorrow, providing there is no last-minute hitch in forging a coalition between the Democrats (who are LI observer members and mainly strong in Bangkok and the south of the country) and various other groups. Abhisit (who reportedly made some of the lady Western journalists at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand swoon recently) is seen as the best hope of ushering in a new era of politics in this South East Asian nation, which has known too many cases of ‘brown envelope’ politics — shameless venality and corruption.
In Abhisit’s favour is the fact that the PAD ‘yellow shirt’ pro-democracy demonstrators who paralysed parts of the city earlier this year and closed down the two main airports, is putting a lot of trust in him and his colleagues to clean up the situation. However, it was clear from meetings with PAD leaders that my colleagues and I had this morning that the new government will be monitored just as closely as was the discredited regime of ousted PM Thaksin (who is still trying to enthuse his ‘red shirt’ supporters from his exile in the UAE) and his short-lived successors, so Abhisit will have to make sure that he delivers real change quickly!
Links: www.abhisit.org and www.liberal-international.org
Dudeist said
Just wondering if you are actually aware of what has been going on in Thailand because judging from your post here you clearly seemed to have missed a lot of very important points.
For a start the PAD are a fanatical group of right-wingers who, according to the highly respected Asian Human Rights Commission have ‘fascist leanings.’ One of their main aims is to bring about New Politics which is very similar in scope to what presently exists in Burma with a 70% appointed parliament including a large number of military officers. They are funded by shawdowy unaccountable figures (they’ve published no accounts despite spending an estimated US$10million on their recent occupations) and have a reputation for serious violence – two bodies were found at Bangkok’s airports after the PAD left. And, on a more curious note, their leaders are known to engage in bizarre occult rituals involving placing used menstrual pads around shrines.
Abhisit and his Democrats, who’ve consistently backed the PAD thugs (they also have an appalling record of backing some very vicious Thai regimes in the past) only secured 30% of votes in Thailand’s last general election. His recent coalition has been put together off the back of army interference (head of the Thai military, General Anupong, has stated that he ‘advised’ the Democrats new coalition partners who to side with) and huge amounts of money being thrown about (The Nation newspaper, strong backers of Abhisit’s Democrats recently stated that the Democrats were paying 40million Thai Baht per head for new coalition MPs). Furthermore, The Democrats have been implicated in vote-buying scandals linked to the 2007 General Election yet have had no case brought against them in the Thai courts. The Constitutional Court’s recent dissolution of the Thaksin-backed PPP was highly selective as under the rules, if any Democrats were found guilty of vote-buying, they too would have to be dissolved.
So much for The Democrats democracy.
Now while ex-PM Thaksin certainly needed reining in, the actions of the PAD and Thailand’s Democrat Party are pretty far from what would be called democracy in the UK even if Mr. Abhisit is photogenic.
I am also pretty amazed that a Lib Dem candidate would openly be supportive of group described as having fascist leanings. There’s really no excuse. Next time I would suggest you do your homework better.
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Ian said
Yesterday there was also a massive ‘red shirt’ rally in the center of Bangkok.
jonathanfryer said
Dudeist: just because we had a meeting with the PAD leaders (and indeed sat in on one of their strange live TV shows) does not mean that we ‘approve’ of them. I sounded a precautionary warning about some aspects of their extra-parliamentary actions in my speech at the LI/FNS conference, and several of us specifically raised concerns at our meeting with them this morning about the notion of parliamentary representation by professional catagories (which a Catalan Liberal member likened to Franco’s strategy).
Ian: yes, the Thaksin rally was next door to my hotel. Maybe 50,000 present, though some observrs say it was fewer. The red shirts are certainly not ‘down and out’ politically, and it is far from certain that any Democrat-led government that might come into power tomorrow is going to have a smooth ride. The party has brought in some strange allies (not least ex-Thaksin supporter Newin. So we’ll we watching closely just how clean and democratic things become.
Dudeist said
Fair enough – but you really must look at the background of the Democrats and almost all powerbrokers in Thailand – hardly any have clean hands.
The best blog to read here is bangkokpundit.blogspot.com – plenty of stuff on there about how the military have been involved in setting up the new coalition. Also check mine out – thaipolitico.blogspot.com
I think Giles Ungkaporn is right in calling the present situation a ‘judicial coup’.
Dudeist said
And the “Red Shirts’ have acted pretty much lawfully throughout this whole situation. The PAD have been incredibly violent and there is much anecdotal evidence that they were paying their ‘guards’ – the most violent, extreme element – and most of these were criminals picked off the streets.
Dudeist said
And finally, I am not surprised in the least your Spanish colleague likened the PAD’s ideas to Francos. These guys are fascists pretty much. And just because they have the word ‘democracy’ in their name is meaningless. Not all movements for social change are progressive. Don’t be fooled that just because the PAD attacked Thaksin that they are progressive either. They are reactionaries through and through.
If they were in Europe you wouldn’t go near them. So I am amazed you are meeting their leaders and talking to them. As I said, examine their actions and tactics and platform and the only conclusion is that these guys are dangerous extreme rightwing fanatics.
Ian said
Please give me a call Jonathan.
I can give you a little bit more background.
(Ian aka nidman)
Dudeist said
Please visit this link to find out the Asian Human Rights Commission’s independent views on the PAD.
http://www.ahrchk.net/statements/mainfile.php/2008statements/1779/
The AHRC states – “Some commentators and opponents of the alliance have described its agenda as fascist. This is not an exaggeration. Experience shows that the types of systemic changes and regimes that follow such movements, although they may not describe themselves as fascist, have fascist qualities. Indeed, successive dictatorships in Thailand’s modern history appreciated, expressed and used many fascist symbols and policies, and the residue of these can be found in the language and behaviour of the alliance leaders today.”
Amnesty’s statement on recent violence in Thailand calls on the “PAD to refrain from abusing human rights, including the right to life and freedom of movement, and to refrain from obstructing government actions aimed at protecting human rights.” Sam Zarifi, Asia-Pacific director at Amnesty International, also stated that “The PAD should understand that when it uses force, including firearms, to endanger lives not only of law enforcement officers but also of ordinary citizens, it cannot claim to be a peaceful movement.”
The Democrat Party in Thailand have openly backed the PAD with several MPs attending their rallies and speaking in support.
Why aren’t LI condemning The Democrat Party for backing an organisation such as the PAD? The leading statement at the top of the LI’s website states – “Liberal International (LI) is the world federation of liberal and progressive democratic political parties. LI was founded in 1947 to strengthen liberal protection from totalitarianism, facism and communism. It has since become the pre-eminent network for promoting liberalism, individual freedom, human rights, the rule of law, tolerance, equality of opportunity, social justice, free trade and a market economy. This site informs you about social liberalism and classic liberalism, our policies, activities and member parties.”
So why are you allowing a party that supports groups with severe fascist leanings to even have ‘observer status’?
Luis Vega said
“The only conclusion is that these guys (Thai Democrats) are dangerous extreme rightwing fanatics,” concludes Dudeist in his last commentary.
Well, he fails to see the big picture in Asia: Most countries are actually leaning right on their own and not lead by national military thugs as he infers. Taiwan went from Chen Shui-bian (pro-independence) to conservative Ma Ying-jeou. South Korea from Roh Moo-hyun (anti-American) to conservative Lee Myung-bak. Japan went from Western-friendly Junichiro Koizumi to Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and now Taro Aso (all pro-military). The Philippines also has gone through a long list of presidents elevated, or deposed, by ‘People Power’ supported by the military.
Thailand then, is not the exception, but the latest example of an Asian political trend: Conservative and pro-military. With two key cultural elements having important roles, the monarchy and religion. Lamentably in Asia, like in Illinois, corruption seems to be a persistent undercurrent of politics. Again, Thailand is not the exception. Many Thais felt Thaksin played againt these traditional pillars of Thai power (army, royalty and religion) and lost – corruption was just another problem Thaksin had.
What Abhisit Vejjajiva brings to the table, besides photogenic good looks and a Western education, is the ability (now) to unite these same segments of Thai society behind him; and a keen understanding of how thin his support will be in a country where political loyalties shift quickly often based on behind-close-doors maneuverings just like modern Chicago. He will need to seek international allies in order to bring Thailand into the 21st Century, and keep his national opponents busy at home. Abhisit Vejjajiva might be the poster-boy of “change” for Thailand, but in America we recently learned photogenic poster-boys for “change” win elections.
Dudeist said
Luis Vega – you have deliberately misrepresented my comments – “The only conclusion is that these guys are dangerous extreme rightwing fanatics,” was aimed at the PAD not the Thai Democrat Party.
I can’t understand why you chose to add in “Thai Democrats”.
What is clear is that the Thai Democrats have supported the PAD and have rode to power on the coat-tails of what is regarded as a fascist movement, operating a fascist programme and which employs fascist tactics even if it does try to pass itself off as an “alliance for democracy.”
And I do see the bigger picture – but I would counter that with “so what?” You’re not really making a point just attempting to be dismissive of my (misrepresented) comments for a reason you don’t quite divulge.
Abhisit is also not a poster boy for “change” with anybody other than wealthy Southern and Bangkok Thais. He’s largely seen by Thai commentators as ineffective, lacking spine and without a good idea in his pretty head. Given the people he has leaped into bed with (Newin Chidchob and his family have jumped the political ship many many times) and with by-elections looming in the New Year, it’s very unlikely he’ll hang onto power long anyway.
Comparing him to Obama is also a very bizarre thing to do. Obama has a clear electoral mandate (Abhisit clearly doesn’t have one) and would have no truck with a group like the PAD. Apart from both Abhisit and Obama being lookers they have nothing else in common.
Dudeist said
Jonathan – why won’t you put up my comments which refer to the Asian Human Rights Commission calling the PAD fascist?
Luis Vega said
Obama was never mentioned on my post, Dudeist. Ronald Reagan also was a poster-boy of change.
Liberal leftists (like you) often make every political election in the Third World ‘rich vs poor’, or ‘urban vs rural’. Come on, who’s being dismissive here? Your original post questions why would Jonathan meet with these PAD people. Since when are journalists (or politicians) only to meet with people they agree with? It’s not a cult, dude.
In Los Angeles, where I reside, I was surprised to see the local Thai community rally against Thaksin dressed in bright yellow shirts for days in a row around my Hollywood Blvd Starbucks. Which lead me to believe Abhisit Vejjajiva’s support is larger than you think, and not limited to Bangkok as you assert. “But I would counter that with “so what?,” as you like to say.
Then again it’s up to Thais to decide who should lead Thailand – not us foreigners. It’s important not to lose perspective, and to impose our views and values on others under the guise of superior enlightment. No?
Dudeist said
Luis -
While it certainly displays some cult-like tendencies the PAD have a clear fascist agenda. Not sure LI international members are fully aware of the this but the PAD were described by the highly respected Asian Human Rights Commission as ‘fascists’. The AHRC stated that ““Some commentators and opponents of the [PAD] alliance have described its agenda as fascist. This is not an exaggeration. Experience shows that the types of systemic changes and regimes that follow such movements, although they may not describe themselves as fascist, have fascist qualities. Indeed, successive dictatorships in Thailand’s modern history appreciated, expressed and used many fascist symbols and policies, and the residue of these can be found in the language and behaviour of the alliance leaders today.”
The AHRC are based in Hong Kong and entirely made up of Asian jurists and human rights advocates. They have plenty to say on Thailand and the PAD.
As for allowing the Thais to choose their own leaders – they did but the party they chose was dissolved in an act that appeared to indicate an ‘activist judiciary’. The court that dissolved the PPP government has also ignored many similar charges against the Democrats. This is primarily because the Democrats are seen to represent the old ‘elites’ and their royalist backers. Furthermore, the will of the Thai people has clearly been subverted by the chicanery of the coalition of elites that backed the anti-democratic PAD in their pursuit of a classic, fascist “strategy of tension”.
Finally, your moral relativism is odd. Your line that “It’s important not to lose perspective, and to impose our views and values on others under the guise of superior enlightment” would go completely against the grain of the LI who have actively sought to support democracy activists in many nations including, most recently, Zimbabwe.
As for my supposed ‘imposition’ – well, I don’t think a few comments on a minor British politician’s blog are much of an “imposition” at all. I am entitled to my views as much as anyone and I am also entitled to question the views and acts of others and place them under rigorous scrutiny.
What I certainly wouldn’t do is act as an apologist for a fascist orientated organisation such as the PAD which is what you seem to be doing here.
For my part, I am certainly under no illusions about the struggle for democracy in the West. In the last 70years massive parts of Europe has lived under various forms of Fascism and Stalinism. WE have no ‘superior enlightenment’ to speak of – just a long, hard fight for social justice and human rights that is ongoing.
At the end of the day it comes down to what you believe in – from your comments I am struggling to ascertain your position at all.
Ian said
Maybe the AHRC should have used the word ‘authoritarian’ in its report,although this word doesn’t have such an emotive ring to it as fascist.But how less authoritarian is Thaksin?
Dudeist said
Ian – they used the word “fascist” because it is the most accurate description. If you think they should’ve used ‘authoritarian’ you should approach the AHRC and make your case. Of course, you’ll be arguing with some of the finest legal minds in Asia as well as some of the region’s most experienced human rights activists. Good luck – I think you’ll need it.
I also can’t understand why Thaksin’s authoritarian streak means that the PAD’s fanaticism should be acceptable. And, more importantly, I can’t understand why members of the LI seemingly apologise for a fascist, anti-democratic movement.
Personally, I questioned Thaksin’s authoritarianism as much I am now questioning the fanatics of the PAD.
I do that from a basis of belief in democracy, human rights, social justice and the rule of law.
What do you believe in Ian?
Ian said
Dudeist
The term fascism is now little more than a pejorative epithet.
But just see what you really know about this place.How do you think the sky train got built in Bangkok after so many years of deliberation?I am sure you enjoy riding on the sky-train.
Dudeist said
Ian
Do you really think I would want to engage in that favourite ex-pat past-time of “I know more about this place that you do, so nurrrr”?
And actually, I don’t enjoy riding on the Skytrain – the trains don’t have enough carriages so it always rammed full. The MRT is much nicer.
As for – “the term fascism is now little more than a pejorative epithet” – like I said you would need to argue your case with the AHRC. I still think fascism is a fairly accurate description of the PAD’s tactics, strategies and political programme.
You’re clearly sympathetic to the PAD – what part of their programme grabbed you so much? Was it the army officers in parliament or the bit when they said that the poor shouldn’t be allowed to vote?
Ian said
Dudeist
Get up and go to the jukebox,put a few bob in it,press
John Lennon’s Imagine,open a bottle of Singha and sit down and listen.
Luis Vega said
Ian, Dudeist simply thinks anyone who does not agree with him is a fascist pig; and sees himself a Messiah. There is a term for this delusion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dictator
Dudeist said
Ian – I’m no hippy so certainly wouldn’t be listening to “Imagine” – just not my kind of music.
“Come in out of the Rain” the Funk classic by George Clinton’s Parliament (democratically elected and with a majority, no doubt) is much more my cup of tea and expresses similar sentiments.
Luis – When did I refer to anyone, except the PAD, as a “fascist pig”? The AHRC commission called the PAD fascists, not me. I happen to agree with their analysis and unfortunately they’ve put forward a far more compelling argument for that to be the case than you have to suggest otherwise. I’m still waiting for you to make some worthwhile comments against the AHRC’s position. If the LI chose to meet an organisation described as being fascist by an highly regarded human rights commission that’s their choice. But it goes completely against the LI’s mission statement and they should be critised for doing so.
I see myself as the Messiah?? Err. Hmmm. I really am lost for words on that one.
And finally, yes I am a dictator. In my own bedroom. As this goes to press my ‘empire’ doesn’t really stretch much further than that but, you never know what the future might bring and you’d be first into the gulag if I ever get to wield supreme power (that’s a joke by the way, in case you missed it – I don’t like gulags much).
Ian said
Dudeist
Well I’m sure you will like John Lennon’s
Merry Christmas(War is Over) especially the
lines-
“For yellow and red ones War is over
Let’s stop all the fight Now.”
BB said
I’m afraid Dudeist is right. I’m a Thai, foreign-educated, yes, but also one of the so-called silent majority who daren’t speak out against the PAD. I’m afraid that if I did, they’d have their minions call and curse my family at all hours of the day and night, put up signs in front of my house branding me a traitor to the country, throw unspeakable things into my house, and do a thousand other things to make me regret I’d ever spoken up against them. Even people close to the King who spoke out have been raked over the coals on ASTV, their global satellite TV network. I also personally know people who have been subjected to this treatment, and let me tell you, it is effective. I was a PAD sympathizer once, when they were a lone dissenting voice during Thaksin’s rule. Now that I have seen what they are capable of, their willingness to destroy everything in their path, including the monarchy which they claim to be protecting, I feel nothing but fear and loathing for these lawless hypocrites.
Ian said
BB
Speak your mind.Are you telling us there isn’t a police force in Thailand anymore?PAD are not the UDA or even the IRA for that matter.
BB said
The Thai police force is generally competent enough for normal crimes. Alas, they have been outwitted by the PAD at every turn. PAD leaders surround themselves with what they describe as “human shields”, women and children who volunteer to protect the leaders from arrest. Thailand has gone through several episodes of political violence, where military governments violently put down protesters, so the last thing the police wanted was to be branded killers of innocent women and children, something the PAD would have used to strengthen their calls for the government to step down.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7762806.stm
Luis Vega said
Excellent analysis by a Thai native:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=135492
Intelligent, pragmatic and optimistic.
Dudeist said
Luis – are you implying that only Thai native’s are allowed to analyse Thai politics? If that is so why have you bothered posting here at all??? As you can see the only Thai posting on here has agreed with my view.
Now let’s look at Abhisit’s cabinet for one moment – an unelected appointee from one of Asia’s biggest companies (CP) is given a cabinet job; Kasit, a PAD supporter who gave rabble-rousing speeches at the airport during the occupation by the PAD thugs said that it was “Fun”; the commerce minister used to run Bangkok’s biggest brothel, Poseidon. The result of this is that several members of Abhisit’s own party are now turning against him.
Everyone now believes a Dem party grandee, Suthep, is running the show. Abhisit looks weak and it will only get worse.
I wish there was something optimistic to say but there isn’t. But what can you expect when a government is founded in such a completely dodgy way?
Luis Vega said
“Many Thais felt Thaksin played against these traditional pillars of Thai power (army, royalty and religion) and lost. What Abhisit Vejjajiva brings to the table, besides photogenic good looks and a Western education, is the ability (now) to unite these same segments of Thai society behind him; and a keen understanding of how thin his support will be in a country where political loyalties shift quickly often based on behind-close-doors maneuverings,” I wrote on Dec. 15th, 2008. Based on observation – not intrusion, sermonizing and condescension as you, Dudeist, do.
I rest my case:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/8658/choosing-prawit-cements-military's-strength
“As you can see the only Thai posting on here has agreed with my view,” you write. Actually I believe “BB” is really you (Dudeist)under a different name.
Ian said
Kasit apologises about his airport remarks
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/8647/great-food-and-music-pity-about-the-closures
From the Bangkok Post 25th December 2008.Christmas is not a holiday in Thailand.
Mansoor Sayed said
I Agree with Luis Vega in everything …
take it eazy Dudeist, and be polite …
Ian said
Kasit Piromya says he will stand down as foreign minister if charged by police with joining the PAD rallies to oust the last government.
Today,(24th February) there is a large red shirt(UDD)rally in Bangkok to coincide with the Asean summit which is being held in Hua Hin over the weekend.
Last week the red shirts in Chiang Mai broke up a gay pride march.
Ian said
Thai PM Abhisit is on his first official visit to London.
He will be speaking to the press about media freedom in Thailand.
Luis Vega said
Thailand Prime Minister Abhisit was confronted by British critic during his presentation on democracy. He said political reform, culminating in the 1997 constitution, had been damaged by corrupt politicians who also undermined the rule of law and defended the 2006 coup.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/13370/abhisit-vows-progress-on-democracy