Holding Burma to Account
Posted by jonathanfryer on Thursday, 10th July, 2008
Burma has an unfortunate tendency to disappear quickly from the headlines in the Western press. In Britain, it is seen as a less ‘sexy’ subject than Zimbabwe, though in many ways the situation in Burma is as bad, if not worse. The military junta is a kleptocracy that enslaves its people and seems devoid of any feeling when thousands of Burmese citizens die. Moreover, whereas there is a growing feeling internationally that the Zimbabwean regime is on its last legs (Robert Mugabe’s personal longevity perhaps only explicable by the hypothesis that the Devil can’t quite face welcoming him into Hell), the Burmese junta seemingly could go on and on, fed by its country’s natural resources and bolstered by the compliance of some of its neighbours.
China’s failure to use its clout to hold Burma to account is well known. But as Malcolm Bruce, MP (Chairman of the House of Commons Select Committee on International Development) said at a Liberal Democrat pasta and politics in Hackney tonight, India — the self-proclaimed world’s largest democracy — hasn’t exactly been turning the screws, as it could. I argued in the discussion following Malcolm’s presentation that the best hope for change may come through regional pressure, from within ASEAN (one recalls that Vietnam intervened to get rid of the genocidal Khmer Rouge in Cambodia), though don’t hold your breath. ASEAN’s southern African counterpart, SADCC, hasn’t emerged with many brownie points re Zimbabwe, despite the efforts of some members such as Botswana and Tanzania.
Liberal International will be holding its next Executive in Bangkok, in December, and Burma will be right at the top of the agenda. Thailand has had to absorb hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing fighting, persecution and starvation in Burma, and has been the conduit for much recent aid. The West cannot bring the military thugs to account on its own — and would probably be unwise to try. But if ASEAN took a lead, it could be a very different matter.
Don said
The idea that any regional neighboring country will intervene to overthrow the Burmese miliary regime is far fetched in the extreme. The comparison with Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia to overthrow the Khmer Rouge is totally inappropriate. Vietnam invaded Cambodia after the Khmer Rouge engaged in repeated border incursions against Vietnam not for humanitarian or other altruistic reasons. It was purely a matter of self defense. In fact the Vietnamese Communists trained and supported the Khmer Rought for many years before they took power. The Burmese military government does not represent a threat to its neighbors and has never taken any armed action against them. Those hoping for a miraculous change in Burma will have to find something better than this to hang their hat on. It should also be pointed out that the death of Mugabe will not necessarily mean the end of his regime either. Recent reporting hsa shown that the Zimbabwe government is controlled by a powerful group of military leaders, much like those in Burma, who have no intention of giving up power whatever happens to Mugabe. There seems to be a great deal of wishful thinking about both of these countries and not enough attention to the underlying political and economic factors which will determine the future direction of events in both cases.
jonathanfryer said
Don, I agree that it is highly unlikely (and probabl undesirable) that any ASEAN country would invade Burma. But ASEAN could do more than it is doing to exert pressure in other ways. I’ll be talking to people in Bangkok to see what they think is possible.