Ireland’s EU Referendum
Posted by jonathanfryer on Wednesday, 4th June, 2008
A few thousand Irish voters could decide the short-term future of the European Union, when Ireland goes to the polls on 12 June in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. It is the only country in the 27-nation EU that is putting the issue to the public (because of a constitutional obligation), but a ‘no’ vote would scupper the whole EU reform process, as the Treaty has to be ratifed by all the member states. One would think that the result should be obvious, as Ireland has benefitted so much from being in the EU; from being one of Europe’s poorest countries, it is now the second richest (after Luxembourg). But things aren’t as simple as that.
At a breakfast seminar organised by Business for New Europe in the City of London this morning, Hugo Brady from the Centre for European Reform warned that the omens were worrying. Although opinion polls have shown a consistent ‘yes’ majority, that has been shrinking. The latest figures are Yes 41%, No 33%, Undecided 26%. Ominously, opinion polls ahead of the Irish referendum on the first Nice Treaty in June 2001 showed a ‘Yes’ majority, but in the event, the vote went the other way. That result was later overturned in a second referendum, but there would reportedly be no question of a second try this time if the result goes the wrong way.
As often with referenda, ‘No’ campaigners are focussing on issues which are completely irrelevant to the Lisbon Treaty, such as abortion, Ireland’s neutrality and Peter Mandelson’s performance in the WTO. The ‘No’ camp is a motley crew. The only serious political party on that side is Sinn Fein, but a mutli-millionaire businessman, Declan Ganley has organised a campaigning group called Libertas to fly the Eurosceptic flag. All the other manistream parties are in favour, as are most of the trade unions. But that doesn’t mean the ‘Yes’ side will automatically win. And with only an estimated 350,000 voters likely to go to the polls, that could mean that a few thousand people do indeed hold the EU’s short-term future in their hands.
Link: www.cer.org.uk
Tristan Mills said
How much of Ireland’s success is down to the EU and how much is down to Ireland’s economic policies?
I’m not sure if its possible to tell really. Being in the EU means it is easier to attract companies from other countries (since moving there becomes easier), but it also has costs (contributing to the CAP, the threat of ‘tax harmonisation’ are amongst them).
Eurozone membership could also be causing problems for Ireland now (but did it cause problems in the past? I don’t know…)
Despite the uncertainty, I think it is a bit much to claim Irelands success for the EU entirely. Correlation does not imply causation…
Edna O'Bama said
Free Europe – referendline at http://www.FreeEurope.info !
Antoine said
Please Irish People, in the name of Europeans peoples , vote NO !
See the comments below this french article http://www.liberation.fr/actualite/monde/330142.FR.php
Most of the commentators wish Ireland could vote NO.
If ever it’d happened, this would be a huge slap in the face of the European Commision technocrats who are completely disconnected from reality. The current way the European Union is designed is mainly in the interest of politicians, media and corporations and definitely not in the interest of the majority of the people.
If ever Ireland voted YES, Europe would become the poodle-puppet of the USA, specially into military domains.
Please, be wise, vote NO and do not fear the pressure of the press and of politicians.
jonathanfryer said
Interesting comment, Antoine — though I totally disagree. For the past decade, Britain has been what you call the ‘poodle puppet’ of the US (especially under Tony Blair), and it is only by integrating further that the EU can stand up as an equal player on the world stage. Which is why I am urging everyone in Ireland to vote YES, please!
Balder Blog » Ireland Rules! Naked Girls, Free Beer, Guinness, lager, soccer, have a party Ireland. said
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french friend said
My irish friends,
You can be p^roud of your constitution, because your government have to organize a refernedum.
in France, we have vote no and today we have to shut up!
Please, for all people who don’t have the right to vot, SAY NO!
Ireland, you’re the hope of million people in France and in many other nations!
Nicolas said
Bonjour à tous,
Hi everybody,
I am French and you, Irish people, are our only hope.
Please, keep in mind that :
- there was a referendum in France in May 2005 : the answer was a strong “NO”
- there were some respectable French politicians – I mean republican, democratic guys, from left to right – who were against the European constitution AS IT WAS PROPOSED
– all the other professional politicians said so many lies after the vote – I guess to preserve their comfortable positions:
“people wanted to punish the government national policy instead of voting for the future of Europe” FALSE
“people who voted “no” were mainly unemployed or unqualified people” FALSE and scandalous : I am a researcher in the Biotech industry, a friend of mine is a clinical project manager for a big pharma, my brother in law is a radiologist… All of them voted “no”. And what is the point : do these politician mean that only qualified and employed people are clever enough to vote ? …Personally, I have never voted with such a strong conviction
“people who voted “no” haven’t red the project” FALSE I red it and that is why I was convinced
“people who voted “no” are anti-european or xenophobe ” FALSE and once more, scandalous : My wife is Italian, half of my family is German, my sister in law is Portuguese, one of my best friends is Irish…
Whatever, the result is that we, French people, have been betrayed (to not say worse). The Lisbon Treaty was signed despite the French opinion. So, please, help us : vote “No”
anako said
Spanish:
Please say NO to that “secret”, undemocratic Treaty!!!
In the name of all of us who can not be heard.
Save Europe from wild neo-liberalism.
http://elproyectomatriz.wordpress.com/2008/03/10/tratado-de-lisboa-europeos-amordazados-i/
http://elproyectomatriz.wordpress.com/2008/03/17/tratado-de-lisboa-europeos-amordazados-ii/